Examining path dependency of urban development and work trip mode share balance using agent-based model. Yandan Lu

ISBN: 9781109242706

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NOOKstudy eTextbook

264 pages


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Examining path dependency of urban development and work trip mode share balance using agent-based model.  by  Yandan Lu

Examining path dependency of urban development and work trip mode share balance using agent-based model. by Yandan Lu
| NOOKstudy eTextbook | PDF, EPUB, FB2, DjVu, AUDIO, mp3, ZIP | 264 pages | ISBN: 9781109242706 | 9.40 Mb

The central theme of this research is the hypothesis that during the development of a region, there is a point of no return beyond which any realistic policies that seek to reverse the tide toward an auto-dominated transportation system become ineffective. This research systematically examines the validity of the hypothesis by simulating the complex interactions between car ownership, travel behavior, and household location decisions using a mixed-type Agent-Based Model with both designed and analyzed elements.

The policy that is simulated in this study assumes that {dollar}5.5 per gallon of gasoline tax is imposed, which increases the gasoline price from {dollar}1.5 to {dollar}7 per gallon. The simulations cover 80 years of urban development during which car ownership increases from approximately 20% to 80%. The simulation outputs show that the final transit mode shares for all the scenarios with the gasoline tax, implemented at different time periods, are virtually the same, directly contradicting the existence of the point-of-no-return hypothesis.

Even though the gas tax does slow down the decline of the transit mode share for several years immediately after the implementation, the decrease soon returns to the same rate as before. However, a closer examination of the output reveals that as the car ownership increases, it takes longer for the full effect of the policy to be reflected on the mode share of transit, although the total effect at the end of the simulation run is virtually the same.

An examination of agents behaviors suggests that car ownership is the decisive factor in the travel mode choice. Even with the {dollar}5.5 per gallon of gasoline tax, the transit mode share declines steadily over the course of the simulations as the car ownership grows. At the 80th year, the gasoline tax merely increases the transit mode share by only 6%. These findings suggest that without a support of other policies that compliment the gasoline tax, it is impossible to reverse the tide of auto mobilization no matter when the policies are implemented.



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